NFL Week 11: An Early Look to Beat the Moves

NFL Lines are by far the sharpest lines of any professional sport, so the best time to bet these games may be early in the week when the lines are the softest.

This can accomplish a couple of things for sharp bettors. If they truly like the side that they feel the line will move against, then they are getting the best line possible. If they like the opposite side, then they can still lead with what they think the popular side will be early, and then come back with a much larger wager on the side they really like at a better number late.

With this in mind, let us take an early peek at early Week 11 matchups. Note that most of these are just guts instincts without deep handicapping at this point, but that is fine as long as we catch good numbers early.

Home teams in CAPS

DETROIT -3.5 vs. Cleveland
It is a shame that someone has to win this game. Usually in these dregs vs. dregs matchups, we would recommend taking the points. Since the best unit on the field will probably be the Cleveland defense, this is no exception. Also, teams like the Browns coming off of being shut out at home are 18-8 ATS since 2002.

JACKSONVILLE -9 vs. Buffalo
Generally speaking, NFL teams do poorly in their first game under a new coach if the old coach either gets fired or resigns in a non-bye week. The Bills will not be sufficiently prepared here with Dick Jauron getting the axe five days before the game.

Pittsburgh -10 at KANSAS CITY
We generally shy away from double-digit road favorites, but the Steelers will be in an ornery mood here after a big home loss to the Bengals last week while the Chiefs lost their biggest offensive weapon when Dwayne Bowe was suspended for the rest of the season for substance abuse. This game could get ugly very quickly.

Indianapolis -1 at BALTIMORE
This line looks like an overreaction to the Ravens defensive performance Monday night. The fact is, Baltimore has struggled vs. the pass all year and their performance vs. the pathetic Cleveland offense Monday does not really prove anything. Peyton Manning should have another field day this week.

MINNESOTA -10.5 vs. Seattle
The Seahawks should be a dead team here, as their season effectively came to an end when they lost to Arizona for the second time this season last week after blowing a 14-0 lead. We just do not see how they can get themselves motivated for this game, while the Vikings will be looking to improve on their lackluster performance vs. the Lions.

DALLAS -11 vs. Washington
The Redskins are a live dog catching double-digits in this heated rivalry. They looked much better coming off a bye last week with Jim Zorn no longer calling the plays, while the Cowboys inexplicably struggled offensively in a 17-7 loss to a Green Bay team that had been allowing points in boatloads.

New Orleans -11.5 at TAMPA BAY
The Saints are banged up with no fewer than four defensive starters out this game, and the Buccaneers have gotten a spark since Josh Freeman took over at quarterback. After upsetting the Packers, the Bucs almost won in Miami last week before losing on a field goal in the final seconds. The double-digit home dog is the play here.

Arizona -9.5 at ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals have looked great offensively, and they should prosper in a dome here vs. a St. Louis defense that exerted a lot of energy while holding the Saints to 28 points last week. Look for the Rams to regress to their normal level defensively here, which means that Arizona could put up 40 points! The best play on this game is probably the Over, but we do also like the Zona side.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 vs. NY Jets
Under normal circumstances, we would be all over the Patriots here coming off of a loss and playing with revenge. However, the WAY they lost last week and the fact that they threw everything they had at Manning and still came up short actually has is leaning Jets as double-digit divisional dogs in a must-win spot for them.

Philadelphia -3 at CHICAGO
The Eagles typically play at their best when there supporters give up on them, and that may be the case here after back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Chargers. The Bears looked like a dead team vs. the 49ers last Thursday night, and we are not sure the extra few days of preparation time for this will help them that much.