Going Over in Non Conference Games

A popular theory among professional and casual bettors alike is that NFL non conference games are more likely to go Over than conference games, since the teams are not that familiar with each other and the play calling tends to be more aggressive, as there are generally the least important games on the schedule from a tiebreaking standpoint.

Well, we have checked the numbers and have ascertained that there is definitely something to this logic. Starting with the small sampling of interconference games this season, the Over is 6-4, 60.0 percent in these games so far.

That obviously does not tell us much, but consider that since 1985, the Over is 679-651-13, 51.1 percent in all NFL non conference games, with an average combined total score of 42.0 points per game. Comparatively, the Over is just 2094-2193-82, 48.8 percent in conference affairs over this same span, with an average combined total score of 41.2 points.

Now just as the 2008 sampling is too small, some may consider going all the way back to 1985 as too large a sampling, due to the evolution of the game and some rule changes. Well, the skeptics should be appeased by the fact that the number do not really change that much if we only go back to the 2000 season.

In fact, the Over has hit at a higher percentage in non conference games since 2000, and the scoring in those games has increased. The Over is 269-247-5, 52.1 percent with an average combined score of 43.1 points per contest those last eight years plus the first three weeks of this one. Meanwhile, the Under numbers have stayed level, going 791-826-28, 48.9 percent since 2000 with an average total score of 41.7 points.

Now all this is well and good, except that a 52 percent success rate is not good enough to turn a profit unless you are getting -105 at a reduce juice shop. However, this percentage can be improved on if you only play on non conference games where a team is coming off of a win by 10 points or more, and the Over percentage grows further if team won its last game by 14 points or greater.

One reason for this is that the team is feeling very good about itself, and that leads to the offense being even more loosey-goosey vs. a non conference opponent. When a team plays a non conference game off of a win by 10 points or more, the Over is 350-291-7, 54.6 percent since 1985, and if the team won its last by at least 14 points, the non conference Over record improves to a lucrative 245-194-6, 55.8 percent next game.

These numbers actually improve for teams coming off of a win by 10 or more since the 2000 season, as the Over is 130-102-3, 56.0 percent out of conference. Teams coming off of a win by at least two touchdowns have remained flat, which is actually a good thing at 84-68-2, 55.3 percent for the Over.